Lowest temperature in Tokyo on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the coolest point of the day be in Tokyo on July 21, 2026? In a typical summer day, temperatures rise and fall, and the lowest point usually happens in the early morning hours before sunrise. The three options are 25°C, 26°C, or 27°C, which in Fahrenheit are roughly 77°F, 79°F, and 81°F. Even the lowest option here is quite warm, which makes sense because Tokyo in late July is known for hot, humid nights. The market settles based on the single lowest temperature reading recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on July 21, 2026, as reported by the Weather Underground website. The temperature is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, so a reading of 26.7°C would count as 27°C. The result is locked in once the first data point from July 22 appears on that site. Any corrections to the July 21 data are accepted up until that moment, but not after. No weather-related news was provided for this market. The only headline supplied is an unrelated horoscope article. To follow this market, the useful things to watch would be Tokyo weather forecasts for late July 2026, and any news about unusual heat waves or cooler air masses approaching Japan around that date. The market is heavily one-sided: the 27°C option is priced at 92%, which means participants broadly agree on the outcome already. The real uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected happens, such as a rain event or cooler air mass that pulls the overnight low down to 26°C or below. Tokyo's late-July nights are historically very warm and humid, which is why the market leans so strongly toward the warmest option. The main risk is an unusual weather pattern, not a typical forecast.

The odds right now

• 27°C99%
• 26°C1%
• 24°C0%
• 22°C or below0%
• 23°C0%
• 25°C0%
• 28°C0%
• 29°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 32°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.