Lowest temperature in Tokyo on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how cool Tokyo will get overnight into July 23, 2026, specifically what the single lowest temperature reading of the day will be at Haneda Airport. Think of it as: how warm is the coolest moment of that day? A result of 29°C means even at its coldest point, the city barely dipped below a sweltering 29°C. A result of 27°C means there was at least a brief stretch of slightly less intense heat, though still very warm by most standards. The market settles based on the single lowest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on July 23, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground's historical data page for that station. The reading is rounded to whole degrees Celsius, so a reading of 28.7°C would count as 28°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 24 appears on that page. Any corrections made before that cutoff count, but corrections made after do not. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of development that would matter here is a long-range seasonal forecast for Tokyo in late July 2026, or any outlook from the Japan Meteorological Agency about whether that summer is expected to be hotter or cooler than usual. July in Tokyo is reliably hot and humid, which is why all three options cluster between 27°C and 29°C rather than spanning a wide range. But even within that narrow band, night-to-night variation is real and hard to pin down more than a few days out. The market currently splits almost evenly between 29°C and 28°C, with 27°C as the minority view. The honest difficulty is that precise overnight lows more than a year away are genuinely beyond what any forecast can reliably pin down.

The odds right now

• 29°C41%
• 28°C40%
• 27°C18%
• 30°C2%
• 26°C1%
• 25°C1%
• 31°C0%
• 24°C0%
• 32°C or higher0%
• 22°C or below0%
• 23°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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