Mexico Legislative Election: 2nd Place?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks which political party will finish in second place, by number of seats won, in Mexico's lower house of Congress election in June 2027. First place is not the question here: the race is specifically for the runner-up spot. A Yes for PAN means that party wins more seats than any other party except the one that finishes first. The three options are PAN (a center-right party), PRI (a historically dominant centrist party), and PVEM (a smaller green party). After the June 6, 2027 election, the Mexican Chamber of Deputies seats are counted, and the party with the second-highest total wins this market. The official source is Mexico's National Electoral Institute (INE). If two parties tie on seats, votes cast for each party break the tie. If they are still tied, alphabetical order decides it. One important edge case: if official results are not confirmed by March 31, 2028, the market resolves as 'Other', meaning none of the listed parties win it. None of the provided news headlines relate to the 2027 Mexican legislative election. To follow this market, the most useful things to watch for would be Mexican polling data for the Chamber of Deputies, the performance of President Claudia Sheinbaum's ruling Morena party, and how the opposition PAN, PRI, and PVEM organize ahead of the campaign season. The election is still roughly two years away, which is a long time in politics. A lot can shift: party alliances can form or break, economic conditions in Mexico can change, and Morena's dominance could expand or shrink depending on how the government performs. PAN is priced heavily as the favorite for second place at 83%, so the main uncertainty is not really a close three-way race today, but rather whether an unexpected shift in Mexican politics changes the landscape before June 2027.

The odds right now

• PAN+25.0 pts (1w)84%
• PRI-12.3 pts (1w)11%
• PVEM-0.5 pts (1w)5%
• Morena-2.0 pts (1w)2%
• PT-0.1 pts (1w)1%
• MC+0.1 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 6, 2027

A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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