Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: who will be the next elected governor of Minas Gerais, Brazil's second-most-populous state? A 'Yes' for any candidate means they win the governorship through the October 2026 election. Right now the market gives Mateus Simões the highest chance at 38%, followed by Cleitinho Azevedo at 22% and Alexandre Kalil at 10%, with the remaining 30% spread across other possible candidates or outcomes. The market settles on whoever wins the official gubernatorial election. If no candidate gets more than 50% of valid votes on October 4, 2026, the top two candidates face each other in a runoff on October 25, 2026, and the runoff winner decides the outcome. The result is confirmed using official numbers from Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE). Anyone appointed as a temporary or interim governor before the election does not count. If no result is confirmed by June 30, 2027, the market resolves as 'Other'. None of the provided news headlines relate to the Minas Gerais gubernatorial race. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of developments worth watching would be: new polling from the state, major candidate announcements, party alliance shifts, or any legal challenges involving the candidates. Several real forces make this hard to call. The election is still roughly a year away, which is a long time in politics. No candidate currently holds a majority in the market's implied odds, meaning a two-round race is quite plausible, and runoff dynamics can shift things significantly. Brazilian state elections also depend heavily on local alliances, last-minute endorsements, and national political currents that are difficult to forecast this far out. The 30% probability sitting outside the three named candidates adds another layer of genuine openness.

The odds right now

• Mateus Simões+10.4 pts (1w)26%
• Cleitinho Azevedo-27.0 pts (1w)24%
• Alexandre Kalil+0.5 pts (1w)10%
• Gabriel Azevedo+1.2 pts (1w)5%
• Rodrigo Pacheco5%
• Benoni Mendes+2.3 pts (1w)4%
• Alexandre Silveira-0.1 pts (1w)3%
• Nikolas Ferreira+0.9 pts (1w)2%
• Aécio Neves+1.4 pts (1w)2%
• Tadeu Leite-1.9 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves October 4, 2026

The Minas Gerais gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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