Moonshot publishes Kimi K3 weights by July 27?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Moonshot AI, a Chinese AI company, will make the full Kimi K3 model publicly downloadable before the end of July 27, 2026. 'Model weights' are the actual files that contain everything a trained AI model knows, the data you need to run the model yourself on your own computer or servers. A Yes means anyone can download and run Kimi K3 directly. A No means that never happened by the deadline. It resolves Yes only if Moonshot AI itself publishes the complete, official Kimi K3 weights as a public download by July 27, 2026 at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. One important edge case: a release that only gives you API access, a demo, a technical report, or partial files does not count. The weights must be fully downloadable from Moonshot AI directly. Third-party conversions or compressed versions also do not qualify, even if they appear first. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The key development to watch for would be an official announcement from Moonshot AI, a new repository on a platform like Hugging Face or GitHub, or credible reporting confirming a public weight release. The market prices this at 92%, reflecting that Moonshot AI has publicly committed to this release. The main remaining uncertainty is not whether it will happen in theory, but whether the company follows through on time. Delays in AI model releases are common, even after public announcements. The strict definition of what counts, full official weights, publicly downloadable, from Moonshot AI directly, also leaves a small chance that something is released but does not technically qualify.

The odds right now

• Moonshot publishes Kimi K3 weights by July 27?92%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 27, 2026

Moonshot AI announced that it plans to publish the full model weights for Kimi K3 by July 27, 2026 (see: https://www.kimi.com/blog/kimi-k3). This market will resolve to “Yes” if Moonshot AI publicly releases the full model weights for Kimi K3 by July 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.