Microsoft (MSFT) closes above ___ on August 3?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks a simple price question: will Microsoft's stock close above a specific dollar amount on August 3, 2026? There are three separate price levels here ($470, $460, and $440), each treated as its own Yes or No question. A Yes means the stock finished the trading day above that number. A No means it finished at or below it. Think of it like asking whether a thermometer reads above a certain mark at the end of the day. The market settles based on Microsoft's official closing price on August 3, 2026, pulled from a data service called Pyth. If the closing price is even one cent above the listed threshold, it resolves Yes. If it equals the threshold exactly, it resolves No. Two edge cases worth knowing: if August 3 turns out to be a non-trading day, the market resolves 50-50 instead of Yes or No. If Microsoft ever does a stock split before then, the target prices are adjusted automatically to stay fair. One relevant headline from August 3, 2026 stands out: Amazon reportedly joined the $3 trillion market-cap club on the back of AI and cloud growth. That kind of broad tech rally can lift Microsoft too, since the two companies operate in similar spaces and often move together on AI-driven sentiment. The second headline, about a UK investment trust, does not appear directly relevant to Microsoft's stock price. The market is pricing all three thresholds very high, at 93 to 99 percent, which means participants currently see a Microsoft close above even $470 as nearly certain. At those odds, the real uncertainty is not whether this is a close call, it is simply whether something unexpected happens before or on August 3. A sudden market shock, a bad earnings report, a broad tech selloff, or a geopolitical event could all move the stock sharply. The lower the threshold, the smaller that tail risk becomes.

The odds right now

• $44096%
• $46095%
• $47094%
• $43090%
• $45090%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 3, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on August 3, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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