Next Secretary-General of the United Nations: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking who will be the next leader of the United Nations, the most senior job in the organization. The current Secretary-General, António Guterres, finishes his second term at the end of 2026, so a new person needs to be chosen. A Yes for any named candidate means that person officially takes the top UN job. The market currently sees Rafael Grossi, who leads the International Atomic Energy Agency, as the front-runner at 50%, with Macky Sall of Senegal at 26% and Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica at 15%. This market settles on whoever is formally appointed Secretary-General by the United Nations General Assembly following the 2026 selection process. A Security Council recommendation alone is not enough: the full appointment must go through. An interim or caretaker leader does not count. If no one is formally appointed by June 30, 2027, the market resolves to 'Other', meaning none of the named candidates wins. The source of truth is official UN announcements, backed up by credible news reporting. None of the provided news headlines relate directly to the UN Secretary-General selection process. The kind of news that would matter here includes Security Council votes on candidates, formal nominations by member states, diplomatic signals from the five permanent Security Council members (the US, China, Russia, France, and the UK), or any candidate withdrawing from or entering the race. The UN selection process is genuinely hard to read from the outside. The five permanent Security Council members each hold a veto, so a candidate popular with most countries can still be blocked by a single powerful nation. Geopolitical tensions between those five countries add unpredictability. Regional considerations also matter: there is an informal tradition of rotating the role across world regions. The process is not fully public, so key negotiations happen behind closed doors, making the outcome hard for anyone outside those rooms to call with confidence.

The odds right now

• Rafael Grossi50%
• Macky Sall+2.8 pts (1w)30%
• Rebeca Grynspan-4.5 pts (1w)13%
• Michelle Bachelet+0.1 pts (1w)10%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

A selection process is currently being held to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations, with the current term set to end on 31 December 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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