Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

What you need to know

This market is asking: who will win the Nobel Peace Prize in October 2026? The Nobel Peace Prize is awarded each year by a Norwegian committee to a person or organization they believe has done the most to promote peace in the world. A 'Yes' on any listed name means that person wins the prize. The market also includes an 'Other' option, which would cover anyone not specifically listed — and historically, the winner is often someone the public didn't see coming. The Norwegian Nobel Committee announces the prize each October, and that announcement settles this market. The tricky part is what happens if the prize is shared between multiple people: the market has a strict priority list — Trump, then Zelenskyy, then Netanyahu, then Putin, then Musk — meaning if any of those five share the prize, the highest-ranked one on that list wins the market, regardless of who else is named. If none of those five are involved and there's a tie between a person and an organization, the person wins. If none of that applies, alphabetical order decides. The provided headlines don't directly relate to Nobel Peace Prize nominations or the Norwegian committee's deliberations. The news about Trump-era sanctions and geopolitical movements involving China, India, and North Korea reflects the kind of global tensions the Nobel committee sometimes responds to — but none of these headlines signal anything specific about who the 2026 prize is heading toward. The key thing to watch for would be major peace negotiations, ceasefires, or humanitarian breakthroughs in the months ahead. The Nobel Peace Prize is genuinely one of the hardest annual events to predict. The committee keeps its process secret, draws from hundreds of nominations, and has a long history of surprising the world — past winners have included figures almost no one predicted. The current odds are spread thin, with no candidate above 10%, which reflects deep uncertainty rather than a clear frontrunner. On top of that, the prize is still four months away, and the geopolitical landscape can shift dramatically before then.

The odds right now

• Volodymyr Zelenskyy-0.4 pts (1w)10%
• Donald Trump-1.0 pts (1w)8%
• Yulia Navalnaya8%
• UNRWA-1.4 pts (1w)6%
• Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani-0.1 pts (1w)4%
• Pope Leo XIV+0.5 pts (1w)4%
• Narendra Modi+0.3 pts (1w)2%
• International Court of Justice-0.5 pts (1w)1%
• Greta Thunberg-0.8 pts (1w)1%
• Ahmed al-Sharaa+0.1 pts (1w)1%
• António Guterres+0.1 pts (1w)1%
• Xi Jinping1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves October 10, 2026

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

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