Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: who will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? The Nobel Peace Prize is awarded each year by a committee in Norway to a person or organization they believe has done the most to promote peace in the world. A 'Yes' on any listed name means that person or group wins, or, in the case of a joint award, is selected as the market's official winner using the tiebreaker rules built into this market. The Norwegian Nobel Committee announces the Peace Prize winner every October, so the result is expected around October 2026. The market then settles based on that announcement. The tiebreaker rules matter a lot here: if the prize is shared, Trump beats Zelenskyy beats Netanyahu beats Putin beats Musk in priority, regardless of how the committee actually frames the award. If none of those five win and it's a joint prize between a person and an organization, the person wins. If it's still a tie between same-type nominees, alphabetical order decides. The provided headlines point to rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, military strikes, Iran-US conflict, and fallout from the death of US Senator Lindsey Graham, who had been pushing for Saudi-Israel normalization. None of this directly announces a Nobel winner, but peace negotiations, active conflicts, and high-profile diplomatic efforts are exactly the kinds of developments the Nobel Committee watches. An organization or figure central to de-escalating these tensions could become relevant. Nobel Peace Prize predictions are genuinely hard, the committee keeps its deliberations completely secret, nominations are sealed for 50 years, and they have a long history of surprising choices. The current odds are spread thin: the top candidates each sit at roughly 8, 10%, which tells you the market sees this as very open. The committee often rewards quiet, sustained work over famous names. Active conflicts like those in the headlines could elevate unexpected candidates, a negotiator, a relief organization, or someone not yet on the public radar.

The odds right now

• Yulia Navalnaya-2.5 pts (1w)11%
• Volodymyr Zelenskyy+0.1 pts (1w)7%
• UNRWA-5.5 pts (1w)7%
• Pope Leo XIV+0.6 pts (1w)5%
• Donald Trump-0.7 pts (1w)4%
• Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani-0.2 pts (1w)4%
• International Court of Justice-0.1 pts (1w)2%
• Narendra Modi-0.2 pts (1w)2%
• Julian Assange+0.1 pts (1w)2%
• António Guterres-0.2 pts (1w)1%
• Greta Thunberg1%
• Ahmed al-Sharaa1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves October 10, 2026

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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