Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: who will the French Socialist Party officially choose as their candidate to run for President of France in 2027? The Socialist Party, known in France as the Parti socialiste or PS, is one of the country's main left-wing parties. A 'Yes' for any listed name means that person wins the party's internal selection process and becomes the PS candidate. Right now, the market sees Boris Vallaud as the frontrunner at 37%, followed by Raphaël Glucksmann at 27% and Bernard Cazeneuve at 19%. The market settles on whoever the PS officially announces as their 2027 presidential nominee. The party is expected to run a primary vote, likely in October 2026, and the winner of that process is the answer. The official PS website and other party sources are used to confirm the result. One important edge case: if no nominee is announced by April 17, 2027, the market resolves as 'Other', regardless of reason. Also, if the chosen nominee later drops out and is replaced, the market still resolves on the original pick. None of the news headlines provided relate to this market. They cover topics from India, the United States, and Malaysia. There is no recent news here about the French Socialist Party or any of the named candidates. If you want to follow this market, the developments worth watching are any PS announcements about their primary process, candidate declarations, and internal party polling in France. The main difficulty is that internal party primaries are genuinely hard to call. The three leading names together account for only 83% of the market, meaning there is real chance of a different outcome entirely. French left-wing politics has been fragmented and unpredictable in recent years, and the PS has gone through significant internal divisions. Who actually enters the race, whether alliances form, and how PS members vote can shift quickly. The primary itself is still months away, leaving plenty of time for the picture to change.

The odds right now

• Boris Vallaud+11.5 pts (1w)37%
• Raphael Glucksmann+5.0 pts (1w)27%
• Carole Delga+5.5 pts (1w)12%
• Olivier Faure-14.5 pts (1w)10%
• Bernard Cazeneuve+0.5 pts (1w)8%
• Philippe Brun-0.9 pts (1w)7%
• Francois Hollande-13.8 pts (1w)6%
• Karim Bouamrane+2.6 pts (1w)5%
• Segolene Royal+1.2 pts (1w)2%
• Jérôme Guedj-1.9 pts (1w)2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves October 31, 2026

The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is expected to hold a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections in October 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) to contest the 2027 French presidential elections. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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