Solana above ___ on August 4?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking where the price of Solana (SOL), a major cryptocurrency, will be on a specific date and time in the future. There are three separate price targets: $50, $60, and $70. For each one, a Yes means Solana's price is above that number at noon on August 4, 2026. A No means it fell short. Think of them as three hurdles of increasing height, and the question is which ones Solana clears. Settlement is decided by one very specific data point: the closing price of the SOL/USDT trading pair on Binance, taken from the one-minute price candle that closes at exactly 12:00 noon Eastern Time on August 4, 2026. Only Binance counts here, not Coinbase, Kraken, or any other exchange. If the price is even a fraction of a cent above the target at that exact moment, it resolves Yes. If it is at or below the target, it resolves No. No specific recent news was matched to this market. The kind of developments worth watching would be broad crypto market moves, any major Solana ecosystem news (such as network upgrades or large project launches), and macroeconomic signals that tend to push risk assets like crypto up or down. Crypto prices over a year-long horizon are genuinely hard to forecast. The market currently prices the $50 and $60 hurdles as very likely (around 98-99%), and the $70 hurdle as probable but less certain (around 78%), which reflects that Solana already trades well above $50 today. The real uncertainty is tail risk: a major market crash, a regulatory shock, or a serious Solana-specific problem could move the price dramatically. A lot can change in a year.

The odds right now

• 2099%
• 3099%
• 4099%
• 5099%
• 6099%
• 7079%
• 802%
• 1001%
• 901%
• 1101%
• 1201%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 4, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.