S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on August 3?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether SPY, the most widely tracked S&P 500 index fund, will be trading at a price above a specific threshold when the stock market closes on August 3, 2026. SPY is a fund whose price moves almost exactly in line with the S&P 500, the index of 500 large US companies. A Yes outcome means the US stock market, broadly speaking, is sitting above that price level on that specific day. A No means it is at or below it. The market settles based on SPY's official closing price on August 3, 2026, pulled from a data service called Pyth. If that closing price is strictly higher than the listed number, it resolves Yes. Equal or lower means No. If August 3 falls on a weekend or holiday with no trading, the market resolves 50-50 instead of Yes or No. Any stock splits would trigger a proportional adjustment to the target price, so the spirit of the question stays consistent. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of developments worth watching would be major shifts in US economic data, Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, or broad corporate earnings trends, since all of those tend to move the S&P 500 meaningfully over a multi-month period. The market currently prices all three thresholds above 97%, which signals that traders collectively see these levels as very likely to be reached by August 2026. At that confidence level, the main uncertainty is not a close call between two equally plausible outcomes. It is the smaller but real chance that something unexpected, such as a sharp recession, a financial crisis, or a major geopolitical shock, drives the market well below current levels. One-year stock market forecasts carry genuine tail risk even when the baseline looks comfortable.

The odds right now

• $72099%
• $72598%
• $73098%
• $73598%
• $74097%
• $74593%
• $75064%
• $7559%
• $7602%
• $7651%
• $7701%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 3, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on August 3, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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