S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on July 28?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether SPY, the exchange-traded fund that tracks the S&P 500 index, will close above a specific price level on July 28, 2026. SPY's price moves with the U.S. stock market as a whole, so this is essentially a question about where the broad American stock market stands on that single day. A Yes means the market closed higher than the target price; a No means it closed at or below it. The market settles based on SPY's official closing price on July 28, 2026, pulled from a data service called Pyth. If SPY closes strictly above the listed threshold, it resolves Yes. At exactly the threshold price, it resolves No. There are a few edge cases worth knowing: if July 28 turns out to not be a regular trading day, the market resolves 50-50 rather than Yes or No. If there is a stock split before that date, the target price is adjusted proportionally so the comparison stays fair. The only news item provided is about a university professor case unrelated to financial markets, so there is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of developments that would matter for this market include major economic data releases, Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, significant corporate earnings reports, or large geopolitical events that move the U.S. stock market up or down. The market prices all three thresholds, $715, $720, and $725, at 95% or above, meaning participants currently see it as very unlikely that SPY will be below these levels by July 2026. The main uncertainty is not really a two-sided debate, it is simply whether something unexpected, like a sharp recession, a financial crisis, or a major geopolitical shock, could push the market down significantly from wherever it trades today. Over a year-long horizon, even a high-confidence outcome can be disrupted by events nobody anticipated.

The odds right now

• $72595%
• $72095%
• $73085%
• $73571%
• $71553%
• $74038%
• $76528%
• $75013%
• $7457%
• $7554%
• $7604%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 28, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on July 28, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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