Toronto Mayoral Election Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple question: who will be the mayor of Toronto after the October 2026 election? A Yes on Olivia Chow means she wins the election and continues as mayor. A Yes on Brad Bradford means he defeats her and takes the job. The market is not asking about temporary appointments or anything before election day, only the official elected winner. The market settles based on whoever wins the October 26, 2026 Toronto mayoral election. The result will be confirmed using credible news reporting, and official City of Toronto results if anything is unclear. One important edge case: if the result is somehow still unknown by June 30, 2027, the market pays out to a catch-all category called 'Other', not to any named candidate. Interim or placeholder mayors appointed before the vote do not count. None of the news provided is related to this market. There are no relevant headlines about the Toronto mayoral race, Olivia Chow, or Brad Bradford in the recent news given. To follow this market, the developments worth watching would be local polling, major policy announcements, candidate endorsements, and any new names entering the race. The market currently prices Chow as the strong favorite at 83%, so the main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected shifts the race before October 2026. That is still over a year away, which is a long time in politics. New candidates could enter, a major local controversy could change public opinion, or voter turnout patterns could surprise. The odds are lopsided, but a lot can happen between now and election day.

The odds right now

• Olivia Chow+5.0 pts (1w)83%
• Brad Bradford-4.5 pts (1w)14%
• Marco Mendicino+0.5 pts (1w)1%
• Ana Bailão0%
• Michael Ford0%
• Anthony Furey0%
• John Tory0%
• Kevin Clarke0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves October 26, 2026

The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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