Next Premier of Quebec: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking who will become the next leader of Quebec's provincial government after the 2026 election. Quebec holds a provincial election by October 5, 2026, and voters choose a new legislature, which then produces a Premier, the head of the provincial government. A Yes for any named candidate means that person wins enough seats to be appointed Premier. The three candidates listed represent the current frontrunners, with Paul St-Pierre Plamondon leading at 70%, Christine Fréchette at 25%, and Charles Milliard at 7%. The market settles on whoever is formally appointed Premier of Quebec following the October 2026 election, based on official Quebec government records or clear reporting from credible news sources. The key word is 'formally appointed': a temporary or caretaker Premier filling a short-term gap would not count. If for any reason no permanent Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, the market resolves as 'Other', meaning none of the listed candidates win. That deadline is a safety valve, not the expected outcome. None of the provided news headlines relate to Quebec politics or the 2026 election. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of developments worth watching would include Quebec provincial polling shifts, major party announcements, leadership changes in any of the three main parties, or significant policy controversies that could reshape voter support before election day. The main uncertainty is that the election is still in the future, and Quebec elections have historically produced surprises. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon leads the sovereigntist Parti Québécois and the market prices him as the heavy favorite, but polling can shift, campaigns make mistakes, and voter turnout patterns are hard to model. A coalition outcome or a strong late surge from another party could change things. The closer the election gets, the sharper the picture will become, but right now real uncertainty remains.

The odds right now

• Paul St-Pierre Plamondon-0.5 pts (1w)70%
• Christine Fréchette+13.9 pts (1w)24%
• Charles Milliard-6.5 pts (1w)7%
• Bernard Drainville-0.4 pts (1w)0%
• Ruba Ghazal+0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Sol Zanetti+0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Éric Duhaime0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves October 5, 2026

The 2026 Quebec general election is scheduled to be held no later than October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the specified elections. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.