US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether the US and Iran will sign a real, formal diplomatic deal about keeping the Strait of Hormuz open to ships. The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, and roughly 20% of the world's oil passes through it, so who controls access there matters enormously. A Yes means both governments officially commit to an agreement that keeps shipping moving through the strait. A No means no such deal is formally announced by the deadline. To resolve Yes, both the US and Iran must each make a clear, official announcement that they have accepted the same agreement about Hormuz shipping, with no ambiguity. The deadline is 11:59 PM ET on the date listed for each option: August 15 or August 31, 2026. One important edge case: if one side says a deal exists but the other is vague or silent, that does not qualify. Separate policy announcements that are not explicitly linked to a shared agreement also do not count. The bar for what qualifies is deliberately high. The news from August 4, 2026, paints a tense and uncertain picture. Iran and Oman were reportedly discussing a limited single shipping corridor through the strait, a partial and temporary arrangement rather than a full deal. At the same time, the US and Iran appeared to be giving conflicting accounts of where talks stood, with Trump suggesting a quick resolution while Iran's position seemed more cautious. A drone attack on a US base in Kuwait also occurred the same day, adding friction to already complicated negotiations. The core difficulty here is that diplomacy between the US and Iran is historically fragile, and the news from early August shows both sides telling different stories about the same talks. A ship was struck in the strait the same day negotiations were being discussed, which shows how quickly the situation can deteriorate. The resolution criteria also add their own uncertainty: even if something is announced, it must be unambiguous and formally accepted by both sides. The two deadlines are priced differently, at 27% and 36%, reflecting how much the extra two weeks matter in fast-moving diplomacy.

The odds right now

• August 3136%
• August 1528%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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