US recession by end of 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether the US economy will fall into a recession before the end of 2026. A "Yes" means the economy contracted badly enough, and officially enough, to be called a recession. A "No" means the economy kept growing, or at least avoided the official recession label. In everyday terms, a recession usually means jobs are being cut, businesses are pulling back, and the overall economic output is shrinking, not just slowing, but actually going in reverse. There are two ways this settles as "Yes": either the US economy shrinks for two quarters in a row (meaning the economy is smaller than it was three months before, two times running, between April 2025 and December 2026), or the NBER, a respected, independent group of economists who officially declare recessions in the US, announces one happened. If neither of those things occurs by the time the government releases its first GDP estimate for Q4 2026, the market resolves "No". One important detail: early "advance" GDP estimates count, even if they get revised later. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kinds of developments worth watching would be: US GDP reports from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, any signals from the Federal Reserve about interest rates, major shifts in employment data, or any early commentary from NBER economists about economic conditions. At 14%, the market currently prices a recession as unlikely, but not impossible. The main honest uncertainty is that economies are genuinely hard to forecast even a few quarters ahead. Trade policy changes, a sudden financial shock, a spike in unemployment, or a global slowdown could all shift the picture quickly. On the other side, the US economy has proven resilient through several recent scares. The NBER also tends to declare recessions slowly and retrospectively, which adds another layer of timing complexity to this market.

The odds right now

• US recession by end of 2026?+0.5 pts (1w)12%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves January 31, 2027

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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