What will Apple (AAPL) hit in August 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Apple's stock price will touch specific price levels during August 2026. There are three target prices: $312, $320, and $328. For each one, the question is simply: will Apple's stock reach that price even once during regular trading hours in August 2026? It only needs to happen for a single minute. A Yes means the price was touched or crossed. A No means the stock stayed below that threshold for the entire month. Each target resolves Yes if Apple's stock price hits or exceeds it during any single one-minute window between 9:30 AM and 4:00 PM Eastern Time on any trading day in August 2026. Pre-market and after-hours prices do not count. The official price source is a data platform called Pyth, using one-minute candle data. One important edge case: if Apple has a stock split in this period, all target prices are adjusted proportionally, so a split would not automatically trigger or block a Yes. One analyst, Gene Munster, was cited in early August 2026 as viewing Apple's recent stock decline as temporary rather than a lasting problem. That framing suggests Apple's price may currently be under pressure, which is relevant context for whether the stock can reach or exceed these thresholds during the month. No other specific recent developments were provided, so it is worth watching for any earnings news, product announcements, or broader market shifts that could move Apple's price significantly. The market currently prices all three targets at 95% or higher, meaning participants collectively see it as very likely Apple touches these levels in August. The main uncertainty is not really about competing scenarios: it is simply whether something unexpected, like a sudden sharp market drop, a negative Apple-specific event, or unusual volatility, prevents the stock from reaching these prices even briefly. At 95-98% odds, the question is less about balance between two sides and more about whether the unlikely outcome occurs.

The odds right now

• ↓ $320+45.0 pts (1w)95%
• ↓ $304+40.5 pts (1w)91%
• ↓ $328+34.9 pts (1w)85%
• ↓ $312+26.5 pts (1w)76%
• ↑ $336+11.0 pts (1w)61%
• ↓ $296+10.0 pts (1w)60%
• ↓ $288-14.0 pts (1w)36%
• ↓ $280-34.5 pts (1w)16%
• ↑ $344-35.5 pts (1w)14%
• ↑ $368-39.5 pts (1w)11%
• ↑ $352-41.5 pts (1w)9%
• ↑ $360-42.0 pts (1w)8%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 1, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during August 2026, any 1-minute candle for Apple (AAPL) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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