What price will Bitcoin hit on August 4?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Bitcoin's price will touch a specific number, either above or below, at any point during August 4. There are three separate price targets here: $63,000 (a 'does it stay below this?' question), $65,000 (a 'does it climb this high?' question), and $62,000 (a 'does it drop this low?' question). Each one is its own Yes or No question, and they can each resolve independently based on Bitcoin's price touching that level even briefly. Each price target resolves Yes the moment a single one-minute price candle on Binance's BTC/USDT chart touches that level during August 4, between midnight and 11:59 PM Eastern Time. For the upside targets, the candle's highest point must reach or exceed the target. For downside targets, the candle's lowest point must reach or fall below the target. Only Binance's BTC/USDT data counts, not prices from Coinbase, Kraken, or any other source. If the price never touches the target on that day, it resolves No. The provided news headlines from August 4 focus on Asian stock markets, oil prices, and unrelated political and corporate stories. None of them directly address Bitcoin's price or crypto market conditions on that date. News that would genuinely matter here includes major regulatory announcements, large exchange outages, macroeconomic surprises like U.S. jobs data, or significant moves in broader risk assets that tend to pull crypto along with them. Bitcoin is one of the most volatile major assets in the world, and a single day's price range can easily span several thousand dollars. The market prices $65,000 at around 20% and $63,000 at around 39%, reflecting real spread in expectations. Crypto prices can shift sharply on news, social media momentum, or large trades with very little warning. The one-minute candle rule also means even a brief spike or dip counts, so extreme but short-lived moves matter just as much as sustained price levels.

The odds right now

• ↓ 63,00046%
• ↑ 65,00013%
• ↓ 62,0006%
• ↑ 66,0002%
• ↓ 61,0001%
• ↑ 67,0001%
• ↓ 60,0000%
• ↑ 68,0000%
• ↓ 59,0000%
• ↓ 58,0000%
• ↓ 56,0000%
• ↑ 71,0000%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 5, 2026

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) on the date specified in the title, between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.