What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether the price of US crude oil will touch certain price levels at any point during August 2026. WTI crude oil is the main US oil benchmark, and its price moves constantly based on supply, demand, and global events. There are three separate price targets here: $90, $100, and $105 per barrel. Each one is its own Yes or No question. Right now, oil trades well below those levels, so each target represents a significant price increase from today. Each target resolves Yes if oil futures touch that price, even for a single one-minute window, at any point during August 2026 trading sessions. The market watches the 'active month' futures contract, which is the nearest upcoming contract that traders are currently focused on. The data comes from Pyth, a price-tracking service, looking at one-minute price candles. The key detail: it only needs to touch the price once, briefly. It does not need to stay there. If oil never reaches the target during August 2026 trading, it resolves No. No specific recent news was provided for this market. In general, the things worth watching are OPEC production decisions, US inventory reports published weekly by the Energy Information Administration, global economic growth signals, and any major geopolitical events affecting oil-producing regions. Any of those developments between now and August 2026 could meaningfully shift where oil prices are headed. There is a lot of time between now and August 2026, and oil prices can move dramatically over many months. The market currently prices the $90 target at 70%, meaning participants think it is more likely than not to be reached, but $100 and $105 are closer to coin-toss territory. Oil is genuinely hard to forecast: OPEC decisions, recessions, wars, and demand shifts from energy transitions all pull in different directions. Over a 12-plus month horizon, unexpected events carry enormous weight, and no model reliably predicts them.

The odds right now

• ↑ $9074%
• ↓ $8057%
• ↑ $11051%
• ↑ $10051%
• ↑ $9550%
• ↓ $8550%
• ↑ $10550%
• ↓ $7550%
• ↑ $11550%
• ↓ $6549%
• ↓ $7047%
• ↑ $12040%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 1, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of August 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.