What will Elon post this week? (July 27 - August 2): how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Elon Musk will type specific words, 'Tesla,' 'IPO,' or 'Energy,' in his own posts on X during the week of July 27 to August 2, 2026. Each word is its own separate question with its own odds. A Yes means he wrote that word himself in at least one post that week. A No means he never typed it, even once, in any original post or reply during that window. Each word resolves Yes if Musk types it himself in an original post, a reply, or a quote post on his verified @elonmusk account before 11:59 PM ET on August 2, 2026. Reposts and shares of other people's content do not count. Plurals and possessives like 'Teslas' or 'Tesla's' do count. However, misspellings, slang forms, and words with symbols inserted into them do not count. Only his verified account matters, even if he posts elsewhere. The provided news headlines this week are about US-Iran tensions and diplomacy, which do not have a clear direct connection to whether Musk posts about Tesla, IPOs, or Energy. No relevant news about Musk, Tesla, or any related topic was included. The kinds of developments worth watching would be Tesla earnings news, any company announcements, or Musk commenting on energy policy or a company going public. Tesla is priced at 90% because Musk mentions Tesla constantly, so the main uncertainty there is simply whether something unusual keeps him quiet on the topic for a full week. IPO and Energy sit around 40 to 44%, which reflects genuine coin-flip territory: he mentions both regularly but not every single week. The core unpredictability here is that Musk posts very spontaneously, reacting to news and conversations in real time, so no one can fully anticipate what topics will pull his attention across any given seven-day stretch.

The odds right now

• Tesla90%
• IPO44%
• China43%
• Energy41%
• Neuralink33%
• Claude31%
• President31%
• Trump31%
• Video game / Videogame26%
• Texas26%
• Nuclear18%
• ChatGPT13%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 2, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if @elonmusk posts the listed term between July 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts and reposts will not count. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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