What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks a simple question: when the Federal Reserve meets in December 2026, what will the official interest rate be at that moment? The Fed controls borrowing costs across the U.S. economy by setting a target range for the federal funds rate. This market tracks only the top number of that range, called the upper bound. Right now the three leading guesses are 3.75%, 4.0%, and 4.25%, with the market currently pricing 4.0% as slightly more likely than the others. The market settles based on whatever the Fed officially announces after its December 8-9, 2026 FOMC meeting. The FOMC is the group inside the Federal Reserve that votes on interest rates. As soon as the Fed releases its decision statement, the market resolves to whichever listed option matches the upper bound of the rate range. If the upper bound does not perfectly match a listed option, it gets rounded to the nearest 0.25%, rounding up if it falls exactly between two options. If no decision is issued by December 31, 2026, the market uses whatever rate is in effect at that time. None of the provided news headlines are relevant to U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate policy. To follow this market meaningfully, the developments worth watching are: Federal Reserve meeting decisions and statements between now and December 2026, U.S. inflation reports, and employment data, since those are the main inputs the Fed uses when deciding whether to raise, cut, or hold rates. A lot can change between now and December 2026. The Fed reacts to economic conditions, so if inflation rises unexpectedly, rates might stay high or go higher. If the economy slows sharply, the Fed might cut. The spread across three options at 31%, 26%, and 19% shows genuine disagreement, not a clear favorite. There are also several more FOMC meetings before December, each one a potential turning point. Predicting where rates land roughly 18 months out is genuinely difficult even for professional economists.

The odds right now

• 3.75%-0.1 pts (1w)31%
• 4.0%+2.8 pts (1w)26%
• 4.25%+7.4 pts (1w)19%
• 3.5%-0.1 pts (1w)13%
• ≥ 4.5%+2.1 pts (1w)6%
• 3.25%2%
• 3.0%2%
• 2.75%1%
• ≤1.0%1%
• 1.5%1%
• 2.5%1%
• 2.25%1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 9, 2026

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.