What will the median home value in Chicago Metro be on September 30?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple question: how much will a typical home in the Chicago metro area be worth on September 30, 2026? The three leading answers are $330K-$335K, $335K-$340K, or $340K-$345K. A 'Yes' on any bracket means the final calculated home value lands inside that specific $5,000 range. Think of it as picking which rung on a ladder the Chicago housing market will sit on by the end of this September. The market settles using a specific formula: Parcl Labs publishes a price-per-square-foot index for Chicago Metro, and that number gets multiplied by 1,500 square feet (the assumed median home size) to produce a final dollar figure. Whichever bracket that dollar figure falls into wins. If the number lands exactly on a bracket boundary, the higher bracket wins. If Parcl Labs does not publish data by October 10, 2026, the most recently available data is used instead. None of the recent news provided relates to Chicago housing, the Parcl Labs index, or broader U.S. real estate trends. There is nothing here to point to. What would actually matter to watch: monthly housing price reports for the Chicago area, Federal Reserve interest rate decisions (which affect mortgage rates), and any regional economic data affecting home buyer demand. The core challenge is that home prices move slowly but are sensitive to forces nobody fully controls, especially mortgage interest rates and the broader economy. A $5,000 bracket is a fairly narrow window, so even a small shift in the market could push the result from one bracket into the next. The market currently splits its attention across three brackets, with no single outcome above 37%, which is a clear signal that participants themselves see genuine uncertainty about where prices will land.

The odds right now

• $335K - $340K+14.5 pts (1w)38%
• $340K - $345K+4.0 pts (1w)28%
• $330K - $335K+17.2 pts (1w)23%
• $345K+-23.0 pts (1w)14%
• $325K - $330K-4.6 pts (1w)3%
• <$320K-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• $320K - $325K-0.4 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 30, 2026

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in Chicago Metro, IL on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.