What will the median home value in Miami be on September 30?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks: what will a typical Miami home be worth by the end of September 2026? It is not asking about one specific house. It is asking about the midpoint value across all property types in Miami city. The most likely range, according to current odds, is roughly $1.09 million to $1.13 million, which would mean the typical Miami home holds a price above one million dollars. A higher or lower bracket winning would mean values moved more than the market currently expects. The market settles using a specific formula: Parcl Labs publishes a price-per-square-foot index for Miami, and that number is multiplied by 2,100 (the assumed median home size in square feet) to get the final home value. Whatever number that math produces on September 30, 2026, determines which bracket wins. One edge case to know: if Parcl Labs has not published the September 30 data by October 10, 2026, the market uses whatever the most recently published data is instead. None of the provided news stories relate to Miami home prices, the Florida housing market, or anything connected to this question. No relevant recent news was shared. The kinds of updates worth watching for would be new Parcl Labs index readings for Miami, Federal Reserve interest rate decisions that affect mortgage costs, or major shifts in Florida migration and insurance trends. Miami real estate is genuinely hard to forecast. Mortgage rates, insurance costs (which have risen sharply in Florida), migration patterns, and broader economic conditions all push prices in different directions. The market prices the $1.089M to $1.125M range at 41%, but the two neighboring brackets together hold nearly as much probability, showing real spread. The deadline is still about a year away, which is a long time for conditions to shift. There is no single dominant force pointing clearly one way.

The odds right now

• $1.089M - $1.125M-3.0 pts (1w)41%
• $1.053M - $1.089M+18.5 pts (1w)26%
• $1.125M - $1.161M-22.8 pts (1w)13%
• $1.161M - $1.196M+1.3 pts (1w)8%
• $1.196M+-2.7 pts (1w)7%
• $1.017M - $1.053M+1.8 pts (1w)5%
• <$1.017M-1.7 pts (1w)2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 30, 2026

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in Miami, Florida on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.