What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on September 30?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how much will a typical home in the San Francisco metro area be worth at the end of September 2026? The three brackets represent three possible price ranges, all above one million dollars. A result below $1.176M means prices fell or stayed flat; the middle and upper brackets mean prices rose modestly or more. Think of it as a vote on whether SF home prices will be lower, about the same, or higher than today by that date. The market settles based on a specific formula: Parcl Labs publishes a price-per-square-foot index for the SF metro, and that number gets multiplied by 1,700 square feet (the area's median home size) to get a dollar figure. Whichever bracket that dollar figure falls into wins. The data is expected on September 30, 2026. If Parcl hasn't published it by October 10, the most recent available data is used instead. If a value lands exactly on a boundary, it goes to the higher bracket. None of the provided news headlines relate to San Francisco home prices, the housing market, or real estate trends. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kinds of updates that would matter are new SF home price data releases, changes to mortgage rates, or major economic shifts affecting the Bay Area job market. SF home prices are already among the most volatile and closely watched in the country, which makes them genuinely hard to forecast months out. Mortgage rates, tech-sector employment, remote-work trends, and broader economic conditions all push prices in different directions, and any of them can shift quickly. The market is nearly evenly split between the lowest bracket and the two higher ones, which reflects real disagreement, not a clear lean. That split alone tells you this is an open question.

The odds right now

• <$1.176M+21.5 pts (1w)51%
• $1.176M - $1.198M-2.0 pts (1w)21%
• $1.198M - $1.220M-8.5 pts (1w)16%
• $1.220M - $1.242M-7.0 pts (1w)11%
• $1.242M - $1.264M-8.0 pts (1w)4%
• $1.284M+-0.2 pts (1w)3%
• $1.264M - $1.284M-0.4 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 30, 2026

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.