White House # posts July 31 - August 7, 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how many times the official White House account on X (formerly Twitter) posts in a specific one-week window. The three possible outcomes are buckets: more than 200 posts, between 180 and 199 posts, or between 160 and 179 posts. A 'Yes' on the top bucket means the White House account was very active that week, posting roughly 28 or more times per day on average. The lower buckets represent a somewhat quieter week. The final count comes from a third-party tracking tool at xtracker.polymarket.com, which counts every original post, repost, and quote post made by the White House account between July 31 at noon ET and August 7 at noon ET. Replies do not count, unless they appear on the main feed. Deleted posts still count if the tracker caught them within about five minutes. If the tracker fails, the market operators can look directly at X instead. One headline is directly relevant: the White House was publicly involved in finalizing voluntary AI safety tests as of August 3, which falls inside the market window. Active policy news like this often comes with a burst of official posts. The other headlines in the list do not appear connected to White House social media activity, so they are not useful here. The main challenge is that social media posting volume is genuinely hard to predict, even for a government account. A single busy news cycle, a major announcement, or a slow holiday week can swing the total by dozens of posts. The market currently prices the '200 or more' bucket at 65%, suggesting participants lean toward a high-volume week, but past posting patterns can shift quickly depending on what is happening in the news.

The odds right now

• 200+72%
• 180-19922%
• 160-1796%
• 140-1594%
• 100-1194%
• 80-990%
• 120-1390%
• 60-790%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 7, 2026

This market will resolve according to the number of times White House (@WhiteHouse), posts on X between July 31, 12:00 PM ET and August 7, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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