Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks which candidates will make it through Alaska's August 2026 primary and into the actual Governor's race. Alaska uses a non-partisan primary, meaning all candidates run on the same ballot regardless of party, and the top four vote-getters move on to the general election. A 'Yes' for a candidate means they finished in the top four. A 'No' means they were knocked out in the primary and are done. The market settles based on the official results of the August 18, 2026 primary election. Whichever four candidates receive the most votes advance, and their markets resolve Yes. Everyone else resolves No. The source of truth is Alaska's Division of Elections, with credible news reporting used first if it is clear. One important edge case: if the primary is cancelled entirely for any reason, every candidate resolves No. None of the provided news headlines relate to this market. There are no recent stories about the Alaska governor's race, the candidates, or the primary to report on here. The kind of developments worth watching for would be new candidates entering the race, major candidates dropping out, polling, or notable endorsements. The main complexity here is that four spots are available, not one, so this is really several overlapping questions at once. Tom Begich is priced at 95%, suggesting the market sees his advancement as nearly certain. Bernadette Wilson at 76% and Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins at 68% are seen as probable but not guaranteed, meaning the market thinks a meaningful chance exists that one or both miss the top four. The biggest unknowns are how many total candidates run and how the vote splits among them.

The odds right now

• Tom Begich95%
• Bernadette Wilson+0.5 pts (1w)77%
• Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins-1.0 pts (1w)68%
• Click Bishop-0.5 pts (1w)40%
• Dave Bronson37%
• Bill Walker+2.5 pts (1w)34%
• Treg Taylor13%
• Adam Crum5%
• Shelley Hughes+0.7 pts (1w)5%
• Matt Heilala+1.3 pts (1w)4%
• Lesil McGuire-1.3 pts (1w)2%
• Jessica Faircloth-0.1 pts (1w)2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 18, 2026

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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