Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by August 31?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether specific individuals will physically show up to a new, senior-level round of formal US-Iran peace negotiations before August 31, 2026. The three people listed are Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani (Qatar's Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, likely as a mediator), Kazem Gharibabadi (an Iranian official), and Rafael Grossi (head of the UN's nuclear watchdog, the IAEA). A Yes means that person participates in a qualifying round of talks. A No means no such talks happen, or the person simply isn't there. Each person resolves Yes only if they physically attend a new, formally convened senior-level round of US-Iran peace talks by August 31, 2026. The talks must involve real senior officials from both countries, acting with government authority, and must be publicly confirmed by at least one government or widely reported. Important edge cases: follow-on technical meetings from the June 22 Switzerland round do not count on their own. Staff-level or working-group sessions do not count. Phone calls or video meetings do not count. A whole new senior-level round must be convened. The most relevant headline is Iran's Foreign Minister saying diplomacy has been 'betrayed by attacks amid talks,' suggesting deep tension around ongoing negotiations. A separate report notes drones targeted an Iraqi city where US forces are based, pointing to active military friction between the two sides. Together, these headlines suggest the diplomatic environment is under significant stress right now, which is directly relevant to whether a new formal round of talks gets organized at all. The core uncertainty is whether a new formal senior-level round of talks will even happen, given that active military clashes appear to be occurring alongside any existing diplomatic process. Even if talks do resume, whether each specific individual attends adds another layer of unknowns. The three candidates are priced very close to each other, around 47 to 52 percent, reflecting genuine open questions. The criteria are also strict: technical follow-ups from June do not qualify, so the bar is a clearly new and senior round, which is harder to meet.

The odds right now

• Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani+3.0 pts (1w)48%
• Kazem Gharibabadi+8.0 pts (1w)45%
• Rafael Grossi+7.0 pts (1w)44%
• Nick Stewart-6.5 pts (1w)40%
• Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf-4.5 pts (1w)38%
• Abbas Araghchi+9.5 pts (1w)36%
• Jared Kushner-11.0 pts (1w)31%
• J.D. Vance+7.5 pts (1w)30%
• Steve Witkoff-16.0 pts (1w)30%
• Ishaq Dar+4.0 pts (1w)27%
• Majid Takht-Ravanchi-7.0 pts (1w)26%
• Esmail Qaani-32.1 pts (1w)16%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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