Who will Trump meet with in 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks, separately for each person listed, whether Donald Trump will have a face-to-face meeting with that person sometime in 2026. A Yes for Mohammed bin Salman means Trump and the Saudi Crown Prince physically meet and interact in person at least once before the end of 2026. A Yes for Putin means the same with Russia's president. A Yes for Lukashenko means the same with Belarus's leader. Each person is their own independent question with their own odds. Each option resolves Yes if credible news outlets consistently report that Trump and that specific individual met in person during 2026, meaning both were physically present and actually interacted, not just in the same building. A phone call or video call does not count. The deadline is December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. There is no single official authority deciding this: the market uses a consensus of credible reporting as its source of truth. The provided news does not directly report on any planned or completed meetings between Trump and these three individuals. The headlines touch on the Iran conflict, a Pentagon casualty update, and diplomacy in the region, which is background context for why Trump might or might not engage with certain leaders, but no specific meeting news is available here. Watch for diplomatic announcements, state visit confirmations, or summit invitations as the most relevant developments to follow. Each person carries very different uncertainty. Mohammed bin Salman at 66% reflects that US-Saudi meetings are relatively routine for sitting presidents, but nothing is guaranteed. Putin at 31% is harder because US-Russia relations remain deeply strained and a formal in-person meeting would be a significant diplomatic event. Lukashenko at 26% is the biggest stretch: he is internationally isolated and such a meeting would be geopolitically unusual. For all three, unexpected crises, diplomatic breakdowns, or scheduling realities could easily change the picture before year's end.

The odds right now

• Mohammed bin Salman+5.5 pts (1w)68%
• Vladimir Putin-1.5 pts (1w)31%
• Aleksandr Lukashenko+1.5 pts (1w)26%
• Delcy Rodríguez+10.0 pts (1w)19%
• Pope Leo XIV+2.0 pts (1w)18%
• Kim Jong Un-8.5 pts (1w)14%
• MrBeast-1.5 pts (1w)14%
• Changpeng Zhao-1.0 pts (1w)11%
• iShowSpeed+0.3 pts (1w)8%
• Yoon Suk Yeol+1.4 pts (1w)7%
• Jair Bolsonaro6%
• Nicolás Maduro6%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between January 1, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.