Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether three specific people will physically set foot inside Ukraine before the end of 2026, and each person gets their own Yes or No. Jared Kushner is a businessman and former senior U.S. official. Steve Witkoff is a U.S. envoy involved in diplomatic efforts. Maia Sandu is the President of Moldova, Ukraine's neighbor. A Yes means the person actually traveled to Ukrainian soil. A No means they never did, no matter how close they came. Each market settles Yes if credible news reports confirm the person physically entered Ukraine's land or sea territory before December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. There is one important edge case: flying over Ukraine does not count. The person must actually land or cross into the country. The market relies on a consensus of credible reporting to confirm it happened, not a single source. None of the recent headlines provided relate to these three individuals or to visits to Ukraine. No relevant news was shared for this market. The kind of development worth watching would be any announcement of diplomatic travel to Kyiv, peace negotiation meetings held inside Ukraine, or official state visits reported by major news outlets. The biggest uncertainty is timing and diplomacy. Witkoff is already involved in talks, which gives him a plausible reason to visit, and the market prices him at 83%. Kushner at 86% and Sandu at 76% also reflect real but not certain probabilities. Any of these visits could be canceled, postponed, or simply never planned. The deadline is over a year away, which gives more time for visits to happen but also more time for situations to change. The market leans Yes for all three, so the main open question is whether something unexpected prevents each visit.

The odds right now

• Jared Kushner86%
• Steve Witkoff83%
• António Costa73%
• Maia Sandu73%
• Keith Kellogg69%
• Mark Rutte63%
• Donald Tusk62%
• Andy Burnham56%
• Mark Carney56%
• Ursula von der Leyen56%
• Friedrich Merz56%
• Emmanuel Macron47%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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