Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether any new country will officially join the Abraham Accords, the diplomatic framework that normalized relations between Israel and several Arab and Muslim-majority nations, before the end of August 2026. A Yes means a country not currently in the Accords signs a formal normalization deal with Israel under that framework. A No means no such signing happens. The four existing members, the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, do not count, and the deal must be publicly confirmed by both governments. The market settles Yes only if a new country signs a formal normalization agreement with Israel that both governments publicly attribute to the Abraham Accords framework, and this happens by August 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. The signing must be official and acknowledged by both sides, not just rumored or under negotiation. If a deal is announced but not formally signed by the deadline, it would not qualify. The unusual note here is that Somaliland, which most countries do not recognize as an independent state, would still count for this market. The provided news headlines do not relate to this market at all. There is no relevant recent news here to discuss. The kind of development worth watching for would be an official announcement by a new government, most often discussed candidates have included Saudi Arabia, that it is entering or finalizing talks to join the Accords framework. The market prices this at just 5%, meaning participants collectively see it as quite unlikely. The main uncertainty is not really two balanced sides: it is simply whether a rare, high-profile diplomatic event happens in a short window. The conflict in Gaza has stalled most normalization talks that were progressing before late 2023, and no country is known to be close to signing. The honest question is whether something unexpected breaks through, not whether two plausible scenarios are in tension.

The odds right now

• Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31?5%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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