Will Congress override any veto in 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether the U.S. Congress will successfully block a presidential veto before the end of 2026. When a president vetoes a bill, Congress can try to overrule that decision and pass the bill anyway. Doing so requires a two-thirds majority vote in both the House and the Senate. A Yes outcome means that full override actually happens. A No means either no veto occurs, or Congress tries but fails to override one. This settles Yes only if both the House and the Senate each pass a veto override with a two-thirds supermajority, all before December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. One chamber passing it alone is not enough. The result will be confirmed using official sources like Congress.gov or credible news reporting. The key edge case to know: if only the House or only the Senate votes to override, the market still resolves No. None of the provided news headlines are relevant to this market. They cover unrelated topics from India, Iran, and Israel. There is no recent news here about a U.S. presidential veto or any congressional override attempt. The kind of news that would matter is a high-profile bill being vetoed by the president, followed by signals that enough members of both chambers are willing to vote against their own party's executive. Veto overrides are genuinely rare in U.S. history, which is why the market sits at only 12%. They require a supermajority in both chambers, meaning the president's own party members would have to break ranks in large numbers. That almost never happens, especially when one party controls both Congress and the White House. The main uncertainty is simply whether an unusual political rupture occurs, not a balanced two-sided question. The market strongly reflects that history.

The odds right now

• Will Congress override any veto in 2026?+5.0 pts (1w)9%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to Yes if the US Congress overrides a presidential veto by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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