What will Natural Gas (NG) hit Week of August 3 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Natural Gas futures prices will reach specific price levels during the week of August 3, 2026. There are three separate targets: $2.80 (82% chance it trades up to or above that), $2.70 (67% chance it trades down to or below that), and $2.90 (39% chance it trades up to or above that). Think of it like asking: how wide will Natural Gas prices swing that week, and in which direction? Each target resolves Yes if, at any moment during that week's trading sessions, the price of the Active Month Natural Gas futures contract touches or crosses the listed level, even briefly, on a single one-minute price candle. The upward targets ($2.80 and $2.90) need the price to reach or exceed them. The downward target ($2.70) needs the price to fall to or below it. If Natural Gas does not trade at all that week, everything resolves No. The data source is Pyth, using one-minute candles. The news provided does not contain anything relevant to Natural Gas prices or energy markets. There are no recent headlines here about supply, demand, weather, or storage data that would directly affect where Natural Gas trades in early August 2026. The kind of news that would matter includes weekly U.S. storage reports, heat or cold weather forecasts, production changes, or major shifts in energy demand. Natural Gas is one of the most volatile commodity markets, so even the high-probability targets can fail to hit if conditions shift. Weather is the biggest wild card: an unusually mild summer week could suppress demand and keep prices from moving much. Storage levels, export activity, and broader energy market sentiment all add noise. The gap between 82% for $2.80 and 39% for $2.90 shows the market sees a meaningful price swing as likely, but a large move to $2.90 as genuinely uncertain.

The odds right now

• ↑ $2.8080%
• ↓ $2.7069%
• ↑ $2.9037%
• ↓ $2.6024%
• ↑ $3.008%
• ↓ $2.507%
• ↑ $3.104%
• ↓ $2.403%
• ↑ $3.203%
• ↑ $3.403%
• ↑ $3.302%
• ↓ $2.302%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 7, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of the week of August 3 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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