Will Oregon reach D4 (Exceptional Drought) by August 31, 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether at least a small but meaningful portion of Oregon will fall into the most severe drought category before the end of August 2026. The U.S. Drought Monitor uses a scale from D0 (abnormally dry) up to D4 (exceptional drought), which is the worst level. D4 means conditions so extreme that crops fail, water sources dry up completely, and emergency measures become necessary. A Yes means that 1% or more of Oregon's land area reaches that worst level at some point. A No means it stays below that threshold the entire time. The market settles Yes if any single weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report, published on or before August 31, 2026, shows D4 covering at least 1% of Oregon's land area. Even one qualifying week is enough. The data comes from the National Drought Mitigation Center, which publishes reports every Thursday. There is a 7-day waiting window after a qualifying report before the result is finalized, to allow for any official corrections. If no reports are published due to a disruption, the next available report within 14 days after the deadline can still be used. No relevant recent news about Oregon drought conditions was provided. The one headline mentioned relates to a water crisis in Kyrgyzstan in 2021, which has no direct bearing on this market. To follow this question meaningfully, the most useful thing to watch is the U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly Oregon updates, especially as summer 2026 progresses, since drought conditions in Oregon tend to peak during the hot, dry months of July and August. The market sits close to a coin toss at 58% Yes, which reflects genuine uncertainty on both sides. Oregon's drought conditions depend on snowpack levels from the preceding winter, spring rainfall, summer heat, and soil moisture, all of which can shift significantly over the months remaining. D4 is a high bar: it represents a truly extreme condition, not just a dry summer. Whether any part of Oregon crosses that specific 1% threshold is sensitive to regional variation and timing, making this genuinely difficult to call in advance.

The odds right now

• Will Oregon reach D4 (Exceptional Drought) by August 31, 2026?+3.0 pts (1w)57%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 1, 2026

This market will resolve "Yes" if the D4 Exceptional Drought value shown in the official U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly "Categorical Percent Area" statistics table for Oregon published by the National Drought Mitigation Center at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx?dregion,4 is 1.00% or greater in any weekly release published from market creation through August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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