What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of August 3 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether SPY, the most widely traded fund that tracks the S&P 500 index, will touch specific price levels during one particular week in August 2026. SPY is essentially a single share you can buy that moves with the overall U.S. stock market. A Yes means the price climbs high enough (or dips low enough) to touch the target number at least once during normal trading hours that week. A No means it never reaches that level, not even for a single minute. Each price target settles independently. For the upside targets ($745, $750, $755), the market checks whether SPY's intraday high touches or crosses the listed price during any one-minute window between 9:30 AM and 4:00 PM ET, Monday through Friday of the week of August 3, 2026. Pre-market and after-hours prices do not count. The official data source is Pyth, a market data service. One important note: there appear to be both upward and downward price targets in this market, so read each individual contract carefully before engaging. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Because this market covers a week more than a year from now, the developments that would matter most are things like the overall direction of the U.S. economy, Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, and any major corporate or geopolitical events between now and August 2026. None of those can be known today. Predicting where SPY will trade in a specific week over a year from now is genuinely very hard. The market currently prices $745 near 50/50 and $755 at about 69%, meaning participants see a meaningful but not certain chance of reaching these levels. A lot can change: recessions, rate shifts, elections, and global events all move the S&P 500 significantly. Even if the general trend is upward, the timing of one specific week adds another layer of unpredictability that no one can reliably resolve this far in advance.

The odds right now

• ↑ $745100%
• ↑ $75589%
• ↑ $76054%
• ↓ $74025%
• ↑ $76519%
• ↓ $73512%
• ↓ $72511%
• ↓ $7308%
• ↓ $7207%
• ↓ $7154%
• ↓ $7103%
• ↑ $7703%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 7, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during the week of August 3 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.