Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a very simple question: will the 2026 US midterm elections actually take place on their scheduled date, November 3, 2026? A Yes means the elections happen that day as planned. A No means they don't, whether because they are postponed, cancelled, or moved to a different date. The market settles as Yes only if elections happen specifically on November 3, 2026. If they happen on any other date, even just one day later, that counts as No. The decision is based on official US government information, backed up by widely trusted news reporting. There is no partial credit: the date must match exactly. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The one headline listed appears to be about an electronics product and has nothing to do with elections. The kind of news that would actually matter here includes any congressional legislation, court rulings, or executive actions that could affect election scheduling. At 96%, the market is heavily tilted toward Yes, and that reflects a simple reality: US federal elections have never been successfully postponed in American history, and Congress would need to pass a law to change the date. The small remaining uncertainty is not really about two balanced sides. It captures the slim but non-zero chance of something truly extraordinary, like a severe national crisis or an unprecedented legal or political move that disrupts the schedule.

The odds right now

• Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?-0.3 pts (1w)96%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 2026 US Midterm Elections happen on November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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