WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above ___ on August 3?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking where the price of crude oil will land on one specific day: August 3, 2026. WTI crude oil is the standard American benchmark for oil prices, and the question has three separate thresholds: will it close above $80, above $81, or above $82? A 'Yes' on any of these means the oil price finishes that day strictly higher than that dollar amount. A 'No' means it closed at or below it. The market currently sees $80 as the most likely bar to clear, with each higher threshold getting progressively harder. The market settles based on the official closing price of the front-month WTI crude oil futures contract at the end of regular trading on August 3, 2026, pulled from a data service called Pyth. The price must be strictly above the listed number: if it lands exactly on $80.00, for example, that resolves No. One notable edge case: August 3 is a Sunday, so if it turns out not to be a standard trading day, the market would resolve 50-50 rather than Yes or No. Also worth knowing: the 'active month' contract being tracked may roll over to the next month's futures if August 3 falls near a contract expiry window. The news provided on August 3, 2026 does not appear directly relevant to WTI crude oil prices. The headlines cover Pakistan's energy supply concerns, the tech sector, economic policy commentary, and local infrastructure issues. None of them report a specific oil price move, supply disruption, or OPEC decision that would clearly shift today's outcome. For this kind of market, the developments that matter most are OPEC production announcements, major shifts in U.S. or global demand data, or sudden geopolitical disruptions affecting oil-producing regions. Oil prices are genuinely difficult to pin down even one day out, let alone over a year away. The market currently prices a 65% chance of closing above $80 and only 39% above $82, which reflects real spread in expectations. Prices can swing sharply on OPEC decisions, U.S. inventory reports, demand signals from China or India, and broader economic conditions. There is also a small technical uncertainty around which contract counts as the 'active month' on that date, depending on where August 3 falls relative to the expiry calendar.

The odds right now

• $8080%
• $8169%
• $8224%
• $8311%
• $846%
• $853%
• $862%
• $870%
• $900%
• $890%
• $880%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 3, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures (WTI) on August 3, 2026, is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.