Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Prediction markets show the probability of a coup attempt in Iran by 30 June 2026 as a heavily minority-backed outcome, with trading volume concentrated on the 'No' side. The market defines a qualifying event narrowly: a coordinated effort by military, security, or other state actors to seize or overthrow the Iranian government, widely reported by credible independent sources. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting by the deadline.

Market structure

This is a binary yes/no market with a single outcome tracked. Volume is heavily concentrated on 'No', with 'Yes' representing a small minority position. Resolution requires both a qualifying coup attempt as defined — excluding protests, unrest, or unverified government claims — and wide independent reporting explicitly characterising the event as such. The deadline is 30 June 2026, with no fallback mechanism specified.

Background

Iran's political system has remained under the consolidated authority of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei for decades, with institutional structures designed to suppress internal challenges to state power. The country has experienced significant internal tensions in recent years, including mass protests following Mahsa Amini's death in 2022, persistent economic pressure from sanctions, and reported factional disputes within the security establishment. Despite these pressures, no event since the 1979 revolution has met the threshold of a credible, widely reported coup attempt. The resolution criteria explicitly excludes protests and general unrest, raising the evidentiary bar considerably. The market's timeframe runs to the end of June 2026, capturing a period of ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the wider Middle East.

Key factors

Several structural dynamics bear on this market. The IRGC's deep penetration of Iran's military, economic, and political institutions makes coordinated defection by state actors structurally difficult; factional disputes tend to be managed internally rather than through open confrontation. External pressure — including sanctions, potential escalation with Israel or the United States, and domestic economic deterioration — could in theory alter the incentive calculus for internal actors, but historically such pressures have reinforced rather than undermined regime cohesion. The resolution criteria introduces a specific evidentiary requirement: credible independent sources must widely report and explicitly characterise the event as a coup attempt. Events that are suppressed entirely or reported only through Iranian state channels would not qualify. The distinction between a foiled plot and an attempted-but-disrupted coup is also a potential grey area that could affect resolution in an ambiguous scenario.

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