Iran coup attempt by...?
December 31
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Understand this market
This market asks whether someone inside Iran's own government or military will try to seize power by force before the deadline. A Yes means a real, organized takeover attempt by insiders, such as a faction of the military or security services trying to remove Iran's leadership. A No means that, whatever else happens in Iran, no such internal power grab takes place. Street protests, foreign military strikes, or general unrest do not count, only a coordinated inside job does.
The market settles Yes only if credible, independent news organizations widely report an event and explicitly call it a coup attempt. The deadline in the event description is June 30, 2026, though the title says December 31, 2026, so there is a conflict in the criteria worth noting. If the Iranian government claims it stopped a plot but independent reporters do not confirm an actual attempt was executed, that alone does not count as Yes. A rumor, an arrest, or a protest, no matter how large, is not enough.
The available news describes an active and escalating military conflict: the US has struck Iran repeatedly, oil prices are rising, and regional tensions are high. This context matters because external military pressure and economic stress can, historically, create internal fractures within a government. However, none of the headlines describe any internal Iranian faction moving against the government, so the news is background pressure, not direct evidence of a coup attempt.
The core difficulty is that coups are rare, secretive by nature, and almost impossible to forecast from the outside. Iran's security apparatus is deeply layered, which makes organized internal dissent very hard to build without detection. At 14%, the market treats this as unlikely but not impossible. The main honest uncertainty is whether the combination of military strikes, economic pain, and internal stress reaches a tipping point that no outsider can clearly see in advance. The deadline ambiguity in the criteria adds a small additional wrinkle.
Order Book
December 31
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Read the full market guide →Prediction markets show the probability of a coup attempt in Iran by 30 June 2026 as a heavily minority-backed outcome, with trading volume concentrated on the 'No' side. The market defines a qualifying event narrowly: a coordinated effort by military, security, or other state actors to seize or overthrow the Iranian government, widely reported by credible independent sources. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting by the deadline.
Market structure
This is a binary yes/no market with a single outcome tracked. Volume is heavily concentrated on 'No', with 'Yes' representing a small minority position. Resolution requires both a qualifying coup attempt as defined — excluding protests, unrest, or unverified government claims — and wide independent reporting explicitly characterising the event as such. The deadline is 30 June 2026, with no fallback mechanism specified.
Background
Iran's political system has remained under the consolidated authority of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei for decades, with institutional structures designed to suppress internal challenges to state power. The country has experienced significant internal tensions in recent years, including mass protests following Mahsa Amini's death in 2022, persistent economic pressure from sanctions, and reported factional disputes within the security establishment. Despite these pressures, no event since the 1979 revolution has met the threshold of a credible, widely reported coup attempt. The resolution criteria explicitly excludes protests and general unrest, raising the evidentiary bar considerably. The market's timeframe runs to the end of June 2026, capturing a period of ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the wider Middle East.
Key factors
Several structural dynamics bear on this market. The IRGC's deep penetration of Iran's military, economic, and political institutions makes coordinated defection by state actors structurally difficult; factional disputes tend to be managed internally rather than through open confrontation. External pressure — including sanctions, potential escalation with Israel or the United States, and domestic economic deterioration — could in theory alter the incentive calculus for internal actors, but historically such pressures have reinforced rather than undermined regime cohesion. The resolution criteria introduces a specific evidentiary requirement: credible independent sources must widely report and explicitly characterise the event as a coup attempt. Events that are suppressed entirely or reported only through Iranian state channels would not qualify. The distinction between a foiled plot and an attempted-but-disrupted coup is also a potential grey area that could affect resolution in an ambiguous scenario.
FAQ
How is the Iran coup attempt market resolved?
The market resolves 'Yes' if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterise a coordinated effort by military, security, or other state actors to overthrow or seize control of the Iranian government. Protests, unrest, and unverified Iranian government claims of foiled plots do not alone qualify.
When does the Iran coup attempt market resolve?
The market resolves at 11:59 PM ET on 30 June 2026. If no qualifying coup attempt has been widely reported by credible independent sources before that deadline, the market resolves 'No'.
Does a foiled or arrested coup plot count as a coup attempt for resolution?
No — not automatically. Claims by the Iranian government that a plot was foiled only count if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly describe the event as a coup attempt. Arrests or disruptions with no attempted execution of the coup do not qualify.
What does the Iran coup attempt market currently show?
Trading is heavily concentrated on the 'No' outcome. The 'Yes' position — that a qualifying coup attempt will occur and be widely reported by 30 June 2026 — represents a small minority of market volume, reflecting the historically rare nature of such events in Iran.
Paridesk is not a regulated financial advisor. The information above is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Prediction markets carry risk of total loss. Past patterns do not guarantee future outcomes.
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