Iran coup attempt by...?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether someone inside Iran's own government or military will try to seize power by force before the deadline. A Yes means a real, organized takeover attempt by insiders, such as a faction of the military or security services trying to remove Iran's leadership. A No means that, whatever else happens in Iran, no such internal power grab takes place. Street protests, foreign military strikes, or general unrest do not count, only a coordinated inside job does. The market settles Yes only if credible, independent news organizations widely report an event and explicitly call it a coup attempt. The deadline in the event description is June 30, 2026, though the title says December 31, 2026, so there is a conflict in the criteria worth noting. If the Iranian government claims it stopped a plot but independent reporters do not confirm an actual attempt was executed, that alone does not count as Yes. A rumor, an arrest, or a protest, no matter how large, is not enough. The available news describes an active and escalating military conflict: the US has struck Iran repeatedly, oil prices are rising, and regional tensions are high. This context matters because external military pressure and economic stress can, historically, create internal fractures within a government. However, none of the headlines describe any internal Iranian faction moving against the government, so the news is background pressure, not direct evidence of a coup attempt. The core difficulty is that coups are rare, secretive by nature, and almost impossible to forecast from the outside. Iran's security apparatus is deeply layered, which makes organized internal dissent very hard to build without detection. At 14%, the market treats this as unlikely but not impossible. The main honest uncertainty is whether the combination of military strikes, economic pain, and internal stress reaches a tipping point that no outsider can clearly see in advance. The deadline ambiguity in the criteria adds a small additional wrinkle.

The odds right now

• December 31-3.0 pts (1w)13%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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