Iran coup attempt by June 30?

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What you need to know

This market asks whether a serious, organized attempt to overthrow Iran's government will happen before the end of June 2026. A 'Yes' means people inside the military, security forces, or other parts of the Iranian state actually tried to seize power — not just protested or complained. A 'No' means that never happened, even if Iran experienced war, internal tension, or mass unrest. The bar is high: it has to be a coordinated insider power grab, not street protests or outside military pressure. The market settles 'Yes' only if credible international news outlets widely and explicitly call an event a coup attempt — meaning state actors or soldiers actually moved to take control of the government. The deadline is June 30, 2026. There are two important edge cases: ordinary protests or civil unrest don't count, and if the Iranian government claims it stopped a coup plot but independent reporters don't confirm it as a real coup attempt, that also doesn't count. The standard is independent, credible consensus reporting. The recent news is significant context: as of June 11, 2026, the US and Iran are actively exchanging military strikes, Iran has announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and Kuwait has closed its airspace. This is an active armed conflict. That kind of external pressure and internal stress is exactly the backdrop that historically raises questions about military loyalty and internal fractures — making this market more relevant than it might be in calmer times. The market prices this at around 13%, meaning most participants currently see it as unlikely but not impossible. The real difficulty is that coups are rare, secretive, and hard to predict even with good information — and Iran's security apparatus is deeply layered and has survived crises before. At the same time, the country is in an active military conflict with the US, which is genuinely unusual pressure. The main uncertainty is whether that external stress cracks internal loyalties, or whether the system holds together as it has through past crises.