Masoud Pezeshkian out by...?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Masoud Pezeshkian ceases to be President of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Masoud Pezeshkian's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Masoud Pezeshkian and the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Prediction markets are currently pricing the removal of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian from office before the end of 2026 as a minority outcome, with trading volume concentrated on a December 31 resolution horizon. The market offers four outcome windows, with the December 31 deadline drawing the heaviest backing and the June 30 window significantly less so. Resolution would trigger immediately upon any credible announcement of resignation, removal, detention, or permanent incapacitation.

Market structure

The market presents four outcome windows tracking whether Pezeshkian ceases to be President of Iran before the specified dates. Volume is most concentrated on the December 31, 2026 deadline, with the June 30, 2026 window drawing considerably less backing. The market resolves 'Yes' the moment an announcement of departure is made, regardless of when it takes effect. Official Iranian government sources serve as the primary resolution mechanism, with a consensus of credible international reporting as a fallback.

Background

Masoud Pezeshkian was elected Iran's President in July 2024 in a run-off vote following the death of his predecessor Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash. Pezeshkian, a reformist-aligned cardiac surgeon and long-serving parliamentarian, took office during a period of considerable domestic economic pressure, ongoing nuclear negotiations, and heightened regional tensions following the Gaza conflict and Israeli strikes on Iranian-linked targets. His election was broadly characterised as a narrowly competitive contest in a political environment where candidate vetting remains tightly controlled by the Guardian Council. Iran's presidency operates within a system where the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, holds ultimate authority, which shapes the structural constraints on any president's tenure and the conditions under which removal becomes possible.

Key factors

Several structural factors bear on whether Pezeshkian could cease to hold the presidency before the end of 2026. Iran's constitution provides for presidential impeachment by parliament, though this mechanism has rarely been invoked. The Supreme Leader retains authority to intervene in executive matters, and any significant deterioration in the relationship between the president and the leadership could accelerate removal. Health or security incidents, as demonstrated by the death of Raisi, represent an unpredictable variable. Escalating external pressure — including potential military confrontation, accelerated nuclear developments, or the collapse of diplomatic channels — could reshape the internal political landscape. Domestic unrest, economic deterioration driven by sanctions, or a currency crisis could increase pressure on the administration. The timing of the two resolution windows matters: a June 2026 resolution requires a much faster-moving crisis than a December 2026 one, which accounts for the difference in how volume is distributed across the two visible outcomes.

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