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Next Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released on...?

Next Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released on...?

Resolves Sep 15, 2026·$1.7k 24h vol·tech
$1.7k total volume

September 8

41%+33.0%
OutcomeYesNo
September 8
September 3
September 2
On or prior to September 1
September 10
September 14
September 11
No release by September 15
September 15
September 4

Order Book

September 8

PriceSharesTotal
97.0¢533$517
95.0¢20$19
94.0¢8$7
93.0¢14$13
90.0¢10$9
87.0¢8$7
81.0¢25$20
80.0¢83$66
2.0¢last trade
79.0¢ spread
1.0¢427$4
$4 bids$659 asks

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Flash model (3.8+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini," be labeled "Flash" rather than "Flash-Lite," be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.7 Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash, while models labeled "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Gemini 3.7 Flash, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as Gemini Flash Image, Gemini Flash-Lite Image, Gemini Omni Flash, or Flash TTS or Live models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

September 8

41%