Will Russia enter Myrne by...?
July 31
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Understand this market
This market asks a simple territorial question: will Russian forces take any part of the village of Myrne, in Ukraine's Donetsk region, before the end of April 2026? A Yes means Russian troops physically enter and hold at least a piece of that settlement. A No means Myrne stays under Ukrainian control the whole time. It is not about political agreements or announcements, just boots-on-the-ground control of that specific location.
The market settles Yes if the tracking website ISW (the Institute for the Study of War) shades any part of Myrne in colors indicating Russian control or advance, and that shading holds through at least one full daily update cycle, meaning it is not just a temporary map glitch. The deadline is April 30, 2026. One important edge case: if a peace deal gives Russia actual physical control of Myrne, that counts as Yes too, but a signed agreement alone does not, real on-the-ground control must be established.
None of the provided news headlines relate directly to Myrne or to battlefield activity in that part of Donetsk. The headlines cover California gas prices, an Irish political statement about alumina exports, and a Russian economic forecast. There is no relevant recent reporting to draw on here. The kind of news that would matter is ISW map updates showing Russian advances toward or into Myrne specifically.
The market currently sits at 9%, meaning participants collectively see a Russian capture of Myrne as unlikely but not impossible before April 2026. The main honest uncertainty is simply whether an unexpected battlefield shift occurs. Front lines in Donetsk can move, and the war's trajectory depends on factors like troop reinforcements, weapons supplies, and any ceasefire talks, all of which are genuinely unpredictable. At 9%, the question is less about two equal sides and more about how much weight to give a low-probability but real scenario.
Order Book
July 31
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Myrne, Donetsk Oblast, (48.367306° N, 37.007880° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
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July 31
8%