AfD wins the most seats in how many September state elections?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks how many of three specific German state elections, all scheduled for September 2026, will be won by the AfD party in terms of raw seats. The three states are Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and Berlin. A 'Yes' to the number 2 means AfD finishes first in exactly two of those three elections; a 3 means they top all three; a 1 means they lead in only one. It is purely about which party gets the most seats, not whether AfD enters government. After each of the three elections, vote-counters tally the seats won by every party. Whichever party has the most seats is the winner of that election. If AfD ties for first, that also counts in their favor. The market then settles on the total count: 1, 2, or 3. Official results published by the actual state parliaments are the final word. Importantly, any post-election legal challenges do not affect the result once official numbers are published. If an election is delayed, it still counts as long as voting finishes before December 31, 2026. None of the provided news headlines are relevant to these three German state elections. The Volkswagen headline touches on economic trouble in Germany, which could broadly affect voter sentiment, but there is no specific polling or campaign news about Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, or Berlin to point to. The key developments to watch for would be regional opinion polls and any major shifts in AfD's national standing as September approaches. The market currently prices '2' at 81%, so the crowd sees AfD winning two of three as the most likely outcome, with all-three at 12% and only-one at 5%. The real uncertainty is about which state breaks the pattern. Berlin historically leans left and would be the hardest for AfD to top. Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are eastern states where AfD has polled strongly before. Between now and September 2026, a lot can shift: economic conditions, national political scandals, or changes in how other parties perform could all move the needle.

The odds right now

• 2+1.0 pts (1w)83%
• 3+0.4 pts (1w)8%
• 1-5.3 pts (1w)5%
• 0-0.1 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026. This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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