Allstate (ALL) Q2 property-liability combined ratio?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how profitable Allstate's insurance business will be in the second quarter of 2026, measured by a specific industry metric called the combined ratio. Think of the combined ratio as a simple profitability gauge: if Allstate pays out and spends more than it collects in premiums, the ratio is above 100, meaning it lost money on underwriting. Below 100 means it made money. The market is asking whether that ratio lands below 88%, between 88% and 90%, or between 90% and 92%. This market settles based on the exact combined ratio number Allstate publishes in its official Q2 2026 earnings materials, such as its press release or investor presentation. The first reported number counts, even if Allstate later corrects it. If Allstate never releases Q2 earnings by September 30, 2026, or if the metric simply is not included in those materials, the market automatically resolves to the lowest bracket, which is below 88%. That default-to-lowest rule is worth knowing, because it could produce a surprising result in an unusual scenario. None of the provided news headlines relate to Allstate, the insurance industry, or anything that would affect this market. No relevant recent news was provided. The kinds of developments worth watching would be Allstate's own quarterly earnings release, major weather or catastrophe events during Q2 2026 that could drive up claims, or any announcements Allstate makes about pricing or loss trends. The combined ratio is sensitive to things that are genuinely hard to forecast, especially weather. A single large hurricane, wildfire season, or severe storm outbreak during Q2 can swing claims costs significantly and push the ratio up or down by several points. That makes the sub-88% bracket the largest at 39%, but still far from certain. Allstate's pricing actions and expense controls add another layer of complexity. The market is fairly spread across the first two brackets, reflecting real disagreement about where claims costs will land this quarter.

The odds right now

• <88%39%
• 88%-90%34%
• 90%-92%13%
• 92%-94%5%
• 94%+4%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 5, 2026

This market will resolve according to Allstate's property-liability combined ratio for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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