Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by...?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether at least one more extremely hard math problem, from a specific public list called FrontierMath Open Problems, will be officially marked as solved before the deadline. FrontierMath is a collection of unsolved research-level mathematics problems created by Epoch AI, an organization that studies AI progress. Two problems on that list are already marked solved. A Yes means a third (or more) gets solved and officially recognized. A No means the list stays as it is. This resolves Yes the moment Epoch AI officially marks any new problem on their FrontierMath Open Problems page as solved, at any point before 11:59 PM ET on the chosen date. Epoch AI alone decides: a solution posted online, accepted by a verifier, or claimed by a third party does not count unless Epoch AI themselves confirm it. The two problems already marked solved do not count toward this market. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of development worth watching would be Epoch AI updating their open problems page, any announcement from AI labs or mathematicians about progress on hard research math, or Epoch AI publishing news about FrontierMath benchmarks. The market prices this at 95 to 98%, so the crowd strongly expects at least one more problem to be solved. The main remaining uncertainty is not really whether it happens, but whether something unexpected blocks it: Epoch AI could delay updating the page, a solution could be found but not yet officially recognized, or the remaining problems could prove harder than expected. The biggest practical risk is an administrative or timing gap between a real solution and Epoch AI's official recognition of it.

The odds right now

• December 3197%
• September 3095%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Epoch AI marks at least one additional FrontierMath: Open Problems problem as “Solved,” or otherwise officially states that such a problem has been solved, between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” At market issuance, Epoch AI lists “A Ramsey-style Problem on Hypergraphs” and “The 2-adic Absolute Galois Group” as solved. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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