Argentina Annual Inflation 2026: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: by how much will prices in Argentina rise over all of 2026? Specifically, it asks whether the total inflation rate for the 12 months ending in December 2026 will land between 30 and 34.9%, between 25 and 29.9%, or below 20%. In plain terms, if something cost 100 pesos at the start of 2026 and Argentina lands in the top bracket, that same thing would cost between 130 and 134.99 pesos by year's end. This market settles based on one specific official number: the year-over-year CPI figure that Argentina's national statistics agency, INDEC, publishes for December 2026. That report is expected in January 2027, which is also when this market closes. The number is rounded to one decimal place, for example 31.4%, and whichever bracket that number falls into wins. If INDEC is late releasing December data, the most recent available month's figure is used instead. None of the provided news headlines relate to Argentina or its inflation situation. They cover topics like Japan's currency, global trade signals, and US-Iran talks. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of development worth watching would be monthly INDEC inflation reports, announcements from Argentina's central bank or government about monetary policy, and any shifts in Argentina's currency or exchange rate controls. The market is genuinely split, with the two leading brackets sitting at 49% and 46%, meaning participants see this as close to a coin flip between the 25-29.9% and 30-34.9% ranges. Argentina's inflation path depends on many hard-to-forecast factors: how fast the government's stabilization program works, whether the peso holds steady, whether global commodity prices shift, and whether public confidence in the currency stays firm. Any policy change or economic shock over the next several months could push the final number meaningfully in either direction.

The odds right now

• 30.0-34.9%+6.9 pts (1w)49%
• 25-29.9%+10.5 pts (1w)46%
• <20%-0.5 pts (1w)2%
• 45%+-1.7 pts (1w)1%
• 40-44.9%-1.7 pts (1w)1%
• 20-24.9%-2.2 pts (1w)1%
• 35–39.9%-5.5 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves January 10, 2027

This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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