Bitcoin above ___ on August 10?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks a simple question: will Bitcoin's price be above a specific dollar amount at exactly noon Eastern Time on August 10, 2026? There are three separate versions, one for each price level: $54,000, $56,000, and $58,000. A Yes means Bitcoin is trading above that number at that exact moment. A No means it is at or below it. Think of it like a snapshot, not an average: only one specific minute counts. Settlement is decided by a single data point: the closing price of the BTC/USDT trading pair on Binance during the one-minute candle that opens at noon Eastern Time on August 10, 2026. If that one number is strictly higher than the threshold ($54k, $56k, or $58k depending on which version you are looking at), it resolves Yes. If it is equal to or lower, it resolves No. Only Binance's own data counts here, not prices from Coinbase, Kraken, or any other source. None of the recent headlines provided are directly relevant to Bitcoin's price or crypto market conditions in a meaningful way. The South Africa crypto regulation story is the closest connection, but it covers overseas transfer rules and is unlikely to move Bitcoin's price significantly on its own. The development most worth watching for this question would be major macro news, regulatory shifts in large markets, or significant moves in US monetary policy. At 97% to 99%, the market is strongly pricing in a Yes across all three thresholds, which means the main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected causes Bitcoin to drop sharply by August 10, 2026. Bitcoin was trading well above these levels when these markets were created. The real risk is a black-swan event: a major exchange collapse, sudden regulatory shock, or broad financial crisis. Over a year-long horizon, such surprises are rare but not impossible, which is exactly why these markets are not at 100%.

The odds right now

• 54,00099%
• 56,00098%
• 58,00097%
• 60,00092%
• 62,00078%
• 64,00047%
• 66,00019%
• 68,0004%
• 70,0001%
• 72,0001%
• 74,0001%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 10, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.