Bitcoin price on July 31?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking where Bitcoin's price will land on July 31, 2026, with participants picking a price range they think is most likely. The ranges shown, like $64,000-$66,000 or $66,000-$68,000, are the possible buckets, and only one bucket wins. A 'Yes' on a given range means Bitcoin lands inside that window at noon on that day, and a 'No' means it does not. The market settles based on one very specific number: the closing price of Bitcoin against the US dollar on the Binance exchange, recorded at exactly noon Eastern Time on July 31, 2026, using a one-minute candle chart. Binance is the only source that counts, not other exchanges like Coinbase or Kraken. If a price falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, it counts as the higher range. Any technical issue that prevents a reading would resolve the market as No. None of the provided news headlines relate to Bitcoin or cryptocurrency in any meaningful way. The stories appear to cover unrelated topics like a court ruling, literary essays, and a business report. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of developments worth watching would be major regulatory announcements, large institutional moves into or out of Bitcoin, or significant macroeconomic news like US Federal Reserve decisions. Bitcoin is genuinely one of the hardest assets to predict over a year-long horizon. The market currently leans toward the $64,000-$66,000 range at 30%, but the probability is spread across many buckets, which itself signals real disagreement. Crypto prices can swing thousands of dollars in a single day based on regulation, macroeconomic shifts, exchange news, or sentiment. A lot can change between now and July 2026, and even the most informed participants are working with significant uncertainty.

The odds right now

• 64,000-66,00030%
• 66,000-68,00025%
• 62,000-64,00019%
• 68,000-70,00011%
• 60,000-62,0007%
• 70,000-72,0003%
• 58,000-60,0003%
• 56,000-58,0002%
• 72,000-74,0002%
• >74,0001%
• <56,0001%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.