Canada Annual Inflation 2026: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: by how much will prices in Canada rise over the full year 2026? Specifically, it asks which range the annual inflation rate will land in when December 2026 is compared to December 2025. Inflation is the general pace at which everyday things, groceries, rent, gas, clothing, get more expensive. A reading of 2.5% means something that cost $100 at the end of 2025 costs about $102.50 at the end of 2026. The market offers several ranges, and the one containing the actual number wins. This market settles on January 18, 2027, when Statistics Canada publishes its official Consumer Price Index report for December 2026. That report compares prices in December 2026 to December 2025 and gives one single percentage, rounded to one decimal place, like 2.7% or 3.1%. Whatever range that number falls into wins. One edge case worth knowing: the number is rounded to one decimal, so a result of 2.95% in raw terms would appear as 3.0% and resolve in the 3.0 to 3.4% band, not the 2.5 to 2.9% band. None of the provided news headlines relate to Canadian inflation, interest rates, or the Bank of Canada. There is nothing relevant here to draw on. The kinds of developments worth watching for would be Bank of Canada rate decisions, new trade tariffs affecting Canadian imports, energy price shifts, or major Canadian economic data releases, since any of those can push inflation up or down meaningfully. Forecasting a full year of inflation is genuinely hard, even for professional economists. The Bank of Canada's rate decisions, the path of the Canadian dollar, oil and energy prices, US trade policy and tariffs, and global supply shocks can all shift the outcome in ways nobody can reliably predict this far out. The market currently places the most weight on the 2.5 to 2.9% band at 49%, but combined the other ranges still account for more than half the probability, which shows real spread. A lot can change before December 2026.

The odds right now

• 2.5–2.9%+25.4 pts (1w)40%
• 3.0-3.4%-8.8 pts (1w)17%
• 1.5–1.9%+12.7 pts (1w)14%
• 3.5-3.9%-0.1 pts (1w)14%
• 2.0–2.4%-23.9 pts (1w)10%
• 1.0–1.4%-6.2 pts (1w)3%
• <1.0%-0.3 pts (1w)2%
• 4.0%+-0.3 pts (1w)2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves January 18, 2027

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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