South Korea Annual Inflation 2026: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks: when South Korea's government measures how much prices rose across 2026, which range will that number fall into? The Consumer Price Index, or CPI, is the standard tool governments use to track inflation, comparing what a typical basket of goods and services costs now versus a year ago. A Yes on the 2.7%, 2.9% range, for example, means prices in December 2026 were roughly 2.8% higher than they were in December 2025, a moderate pace of inflation, not too hot and not too cool. The market settles on whichever range matches the official CPI figure published by South Korea's Ministry of Data and Statistics for December 2026. That report is currently scheduled for December 31, 2026. One important detail: the report rounds to one decimal place, so a reading of 2.75% would appear as 2.8% and land in the 2.7%, 2.9% bucket. If the December report is delayed, the most recent available month's data is used instead. The number itself, not any outside analysis, decides the outcome. None of the recent news provided directly relates to South Korean inflation data or price trends. The headlines cover a court ruling on ex-President Yoon, a heatwave, a stabbing incident, and North Korea news. Worth watching going forward: any reports on South Korean energy prices, food costs, or central bank interest rate decisions would be the most relevant signals for where inflation is heading by year-end. The biggest challenge is that the deadline is still months away, and a lot can shift prices between now and December. The market is spread across three meaningful ranges, with no single outcome commanding a strong majority, which reflects genuine uncertainty. Factors like global oil prices, the won's exchange rate, domestic food supply, and Bank of Korea interest rate decisions all feed into the final number. The heatwave in the news could also push food prices higher if harvests are affected, adding another variable that is hard to model this far out.

The odds right now

• 2.7% to 2.9%+22.8 pts (1w)38%
• 2.4% to 2.6%+2.8 pts (1w)30%
• 3.0%+-2.5 pts (1w)19%
• 2.1% to 2.3%-20.1 pts (1w)12%
• 1.8% to 2.0%-0.1 pts (1w)3%
• 1.5% to 1.7%-0.4 pts (1w)2%
• <1.5%-3.3 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Korea in the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the South Korean Ministry of Data and Statistics (MODS). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in South Korea’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (December CPI % change compared to the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MODS Consumer Price Survey report for the specified month. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.