Core PCE YoY - July 2026: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how fast will prices be rising in July 2026, according to a specific inflation measure the US Federal Reserve watches closely? Core PCE is the rate at which everyday goods and services are getting more expensive, but with food and energy prices removed, because those swing around a lot on their own. A result of 3.3% means that, on average, things cost about 3.3% more than they did a year earlier. The different percentage options here are the possible outcomes, and participants are weighing which one is most likely. This market settles on a single number: whatever Core PCE figure the Bureau of Economic Analysis officially publishes for July 2026, in their Personal Income and Outlays report, scheduled for August 26, 2026 at 8:30 AM US Eastern time. The BEA rounds this number to one decimal place, so 3.27% and 3.34% would both become 3.3%. The market picks whichever listed option matches that rounded figure. One edge case worth knowing: if the BEA delays the release, the market stays open until the next scheduled report, or falls back on the most recent available data. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of developments worth watching would be monthly inflation readings leading up to July 2026, any Federal Reserve policy changes, and broader economic signals like wage growth or consumer spending trends, since all of these feed directly into where Core PCE lands. Even professional economists with full access to economic data routinely miss these numbers by a tenth of a percent. The market is spread across three close options: 3.3% at 32%, 3.2% at 28%, and 3.4% at 23%, which tells you there is genuine disagreement and no clear frontrunner. Inflation can shift from unexpected sources: trade policy changes, energy price ripples into services, or labor market surprises. And July 2026 is still many months away, meaning a lot of economic events between now and then can push the final number in either direction.

The odds right now

• 3.3%37%
• 3.2%28%
• 3.4%24%
• 3.1%8%
• 3.5%6%
• ≤3.0%4%
• 3.6%+4%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 26, 2026

This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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